The question I get asked more than any other in my inbox landed again last Tuesday: "So, is it a buyers or sellers market right now?" The person asking wasn't a first-time buyer or a nervous seller. It was a client I've worked with for four years, someone who closed on two properties with me and knows the process cold. And still, standing in her kitchen with the listing sheet in hand, she had no idea which way the wind was blowing.
That says something. When even experienced owners can't read the room, the framing is broken. The national headline says one thing, the house down your street says another, and your neighbor's sale last month says a third.
Here's my honest take: there is no single answer to "is it a buyers or sellers market right now," because the market hasn't been one thing for years. It's a patchwork. Your zip code matters more than the country.
Key takeaways
- Nationally, the balance tips slightly toward buyers, with roughly 58% of sellers compared to 972,000 active buyers in the last figures I pulled from Redfin's data.
- But that national number hides enormous local variation. Sun Belt metros lean heavily toward buyers; much of the Midwest, Northeast and Bay Area still favor sellers.
- The single best indicator right now isn't median price—it's how many sales close below the asking price. That number hit 52.8% in June 2026, up from 53.0% the year before.
- Seasonality still rules. Spring belongs to sellers, fall and winter belong to buyers. Always has.
- 2026 is shaping up as a decent year to buy if you're not overextended—but a rough year to sell if you bought at the peak in 2021 or 2022.
The short answer nobody wants to hear
If you want one sentence: we're in a mild buyers market nationally, but that label collapses the moment you cross a county line. That's not a dodge. It's the actual state of things, and pretending otherwise does you a disservice.
I'll give you the numbers first, then explain why they're almost useless on their own.
What the national numbers actually show
The Redfin data I keep coming back to shows around 1.53 million sellers versus roughly 972,000 active buyers in the most recent reading. That's a ratio of about 58 to 42 in raw seller-to-buyer terms—but Redfin's own framing calls this period "the strongest buyers market on record," and that framing is where the story gets interesting.
The median sale price sits near $399,900, up about 2.5% year over year. Sales volume, though, is down 2.0%. And the 30-year mortgage rate is hovering around 6.7%.
Read those three numbers together and a picture emerges: prices are holding, but the volume of transactions is falling. That's not the signature of a hot market. It's the signature of a standoff.
The number I watch instead of median price
Here's where I part ways with most of what you'll read. Median price tells you what closed last month. It tells you almost nothing about what will close next month, and it says nothing about your negotiating power.
The metric I actually watch is the share of homes sold below the original asking price. In June 2026, that number was 52.8%. A year earlier, it was 53.0%. Nearly identical—but the monthly trajectory matters more than the year-over-year snapshot. In January 2026, that figure peaked at 67.3%.
That January spike is the real signal. It tells you that at the start of this year, two out of every three sellers had to accept less than they originally wanted. If you're selling today, that's your baseline expectation, not the March number where everything looked rosier.
Why geography beats every headline you'll read
Let me show you what I mean with a scene from last month.
I had two clients closing on the same day, both selling three-bedroom homes in the $500,000 range. One in Phoenix. One in a Cleveland suburb.
The Phoenix seller had three showings in six weeks and accepted an offer 7% below list. The Cleveland seller had eleven showings in eight days and got 2% above list with a backup offer in reserve.
Same country. Same week. Same price bracket. Opposite experiences. That's the reality that any single national number can't capture.
Buyers or sellers market by zip code
This is where the question "is it a buyers or sellers market right now" becomes genuinely useful—and genuinely impossible to answer generically. The pattern I've observed over the last eighteen months breaks down roughly like this:
- Sun Belt metros (Phoenix, Austin, much of Florida and inland California): heavy buyers market. Inventory piled up during the 2023–2024 rate shock, and it hasn't fully cleared.
- Midwest and Northeast: mostly sellers markets, especially smaller cities where construction never caught up to demand.
- Bay Area and coastal California: still sellers markets in the desirable pockets, though softer than the 2021 peak.
- Pacific Northwest: mixed, leaning buyers in the suburbs, sellers in the urban core.
So when someone asks "Is it a buyers or sellers market in Los Angeles?" the honest answer requires knowing which Los Angeles. Santa Monica and Riverside are not the same market.
Seasonality and timing: when will it be a buyers market?
People forget how much of this is simply the calendar.
Spring and early summer are sellers markets by default. Families want to move before school starts, buyers come out of winter hibernation, and listings move fast. Fall and winter flip it. Fewer buyers, lower competition, more negotiating room.
If you're waiting for a buyers market and you're in a sellers-leaning area, wait for October or November. That's when I've seen clients get 3–5% off asking on homes that would have sparked bidding wars in May.
Is 2026 going to be a good year to buy a house?
For most buyers, yes—with caveats. Rates at 6.7% aren't the 3% fantasy of 2021, but they're also not the 7.5% panic of 2023. Price growth has flattened to roughly 2.5%, which means you're no longer chasing a runaway market.
The catch? If you're buying in a sellers-leaning area, you still need to compete. If you're buying in a Sun Belt metro, you have real leverage and should use it. I've negotiated seller-paid closing costs, rate buy-downs, and repair credits this year that would have been laughed at in 2022. The room exists. You have to ask.
Is it a good time to buy a house now or wait?
Waiting for rates to fall is a trap I've watched too many people fall into. If rates drop to 5.5%, inventory tightens, prices climb, and you're competing against more buyers. You may save on the monthly payment but lose on the purchase price. I've seen it happen to three clients since 2023.
The buy-now case is strongest when you plan to hold for five years or more. Over that horizon, today's rate becomes an annoyance, not a dealbreaker—and you can always refinance later. You can't refinance a missed opportunity.
Is it smart to sell your house right now?
Depends entirely on when you bought and where you live.
| Your situation | Verdict | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Bought pre-2020 in a sellers market area | Good time to sell | Substantial equity cushion; you can absorb 3–5% off list and still profit |
| Bought 2021–2022 at peak price | Rough time to sell | You may be at or near break-even after fees; holding usually wins |
| Bought in Sun Belt in last 3 years | Bad time to sell | Inventory glut means you're competing with builders cutting prices |
| Owned 10+ years, downsizing | Neutral to good | Your gain is locked in; the new purchase also benefits from softness |
| Inherited property, no mortgage | Good time | No rate anxiety; sell into whatever market exists |
The single biggest mistake I see sellers make this year is anchoring to the Zestimate. It doesn't matter what the algorithm says. It matters what 52.8% of sellers just accepted below list—which is to say, real offers are lower than asking, and the market knows it.
When will it be a sellers market again?
Meaningfully? When inventory stops outpacing demand. Right now, roughly a third of listings in Sun Belt metros have been sitting for over 60 days. That supply has to clear before sellers regain leverage. I'd estimate 12 to 18 months of steady absorption before those markets flip back.
In the Midwest and Northeast, you're already there. There was never a real buyers market in Cleveland.
How to read your own market in about 15 minutes
Forget the national numbers for a moment. Here's what you actually do.
- Pull up three to five comparable listings on any major site. Look at days-on-market, not price.
- Check what fraction of recent sales closed below the original asking price. If it's over 50%, you're in a buyers market. Under 30%? Sellers market.
- Look at the inventory trend in your zip code for the last 90 days. Rising inventory favors buyers. Shrinking inventory favors sellers.
- Call a local agent with recent closings and ask one question: "What percentage of your last ten deals had seller concessions?" Their answer tells you more than any national report.
- Ignore the "buyers market / sellers market" label entirely. Ask instead: "In my target area, do I have leverage?" That's the only question that matters.
I did this exact exercise last week for the client who asked me the opening question. Her target neighborhood: 34% of sales below list, days-on-market climbing from 22 to 41 over the last quarter. Verdict: mild buyers market. She made a lowball offer. Got it accepted at 4% under asking with the seller paying $6,000 in closing costs.
The national headline would have told her to move fast. The local math told her to slow down. The local math was right.
So no, there isn't a clean answer to whether it's a buyers or sellers market right now. There's a messy, local, seasonal, zip-code-specific answer—and once you accept that, you stop asking the question and start doing the work.
What I'd ask instead: in your specific neighborhood, on your specific timeline, do you have room to negotiate? If the answer is yes, you're in a buyers market. If it's no, you're not. The label is downstream of that fact, not the other way around.
